Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

351.83 – 283.09

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

354 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 25.81Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 120.75Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 205.27Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.11Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 249.3Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.68Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4320, 3316, 4744

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4320, 3316, 4744

Auto

91.3 26%

Teleop

204.1 58%

Endgame

55.9 16%

Strengths

· 4744 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2212, 3075, 5990

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2212, 3075, 5990

Auto

61.8 22%

Teleop

147.7 53%

Endgame

70.7 25%

Strengths

· 3075 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score351.8pts

Blue projected score283.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.7
Score range: 252–383
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 697 vs event baseline 173.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX298.4

91.3Auto61.8

204.1Teleop147.7

55.9Endgame70.7

24Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	7
teleop	155	210
endgame	73	126
foul	0	0
total	354	343

Result

Final score

354 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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