Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.06 – 102.72

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 204

Prediction missed · off by 51.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 109.73Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7177Turismo

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 57.65Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11329G-Force

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 4.68Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -3.06Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 85.45Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.33Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5614, 7177, 11329

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5614, 7177, 11329

Auto

15.4 11%

Teleop

85.0 59%

Endgame

42.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1937, 5715, 6740

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1937, 5715, 6740

Auto

19.1 18%

Teleop

54.3 51%

Endgame

32.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.1pts

Blue projected score102.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.3
Score range: 72–203
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 173.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

15.4Auto19.1

85Teleop54.3

42.6Endgame32.5

18Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	26
teleop	117	123
endgame	0	55
foul	30	0
total	171	204

Result

Final score

171 – 204

Prediction missed · off by 51.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree