Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.35 – 71.49

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 3.41Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 43.74Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8175Piece of Mind

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 126.2Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 28.06Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5928MetalBoost

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.1Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.33Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11478, 7845, 8175

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11478, 7845, 8175

Auto

23.1 16%

Teleop

101.4 71%

Endgame

17.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2230, 5928, 11471

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2230, 5928, 11471

Auto

25.4 36%

Teleop

25.6 36%

Endgame

19.5 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.4pts

Blue projected score71.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.9
Score range: 39–205
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 176.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

23.1Auto25.4

101.4Teleop25.6

17.9Endgame19.5

34Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	19
teleop	56	43
endgame	23	3
foul	0	0
total	106	65

Result

Final score

106 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree