Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.42 – 51.44

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 74.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.4Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.16Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 90.86Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

7177Turismo

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 44.9Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.34Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -15.8Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5990, 4320, 5715

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5990, 4320, 5715

Auto

44.0 28%

Teleop

73.9 48%

Endgame

37.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7177, 7845, 11478

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7177, 7845, 11478

Auto

-11.8 0%

Teleop

57.7 100%

Endgame

-1.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.4pts

Blue projected score51.4pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108
Score range: 19–191
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 179.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

44Auto-11.8

73.9Teleop57.7

37.3Endgame-1.1

35Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	17
teleop	53	38
endgame	44	17
foul	20	105
total	136	177

Result

Final score

136 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 74.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree