Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

410.31 – 0

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

1943Neat Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 71.66Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 280.06Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 58.59Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5928MetalBoost

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.42Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -22.35Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -3.64Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1943, 3075, 2230

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1943, 3075, 2230

Auto

66.5 16%

Teleop

240.4 60%

Endgame

97.1 24%

Strengths

· 3075 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5928, 1937, 11390

/ 100 compat

Projected

-6.6 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5928, 1937, 11390

Auto

21.1 0%

Teleop

-12.0 100%

Endgame

-14.7 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score410.3pts

Blue projected score-6.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 410.3
Score range: -32–442
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 178.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX0

66.5Auto21.1

240.4Teleop-12

97.1Endgame-14.7

39Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	14
teleop	128	24
endgame	77	16
foul	15	0
total	274	54

Result

Final score

274 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree