Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

14.28 – 269.3

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 29.85Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -38.09Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6230Team Koi

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.52Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.96Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.85Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 212.49Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5990, 11478, 6230

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5990, 11478, 6230

Auto

24.5 100%

Teleop

8.2 42%

Endgame

-13.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7845, 6740, 4744

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7845, 6740, 4744

Auto

58.3 22%

Teleop

175.2 66%

Endgame

33.2 12%

Strengths

· 4744 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score14.3pts

Blue projected score269.3pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -255
Score range: -19–302
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 181.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

24.5Auto58.3

8.2Teleop175.2

-13.3Endgame33.2

112Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	76
teleop	10	130
endgame	0	17
foul	0	0
total	25	223

Result

Final score

25 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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