Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.9 – 135.59

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

6230Team Koi

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.51Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 29.82Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 158.57Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -14.48Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 49.7Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 100.37Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6230, 7845, 3316

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6230, 7845, 3316

Auto

45.7 23%

Teleop

117.3 58%

Endgame

39.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11478, 6740, 5614

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11478, 6740, 5614

Auto

33.1 24%

Teleop

103.7 76%

Endgame

-1.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.9pts

Blue projected score135.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.3
Score range: 103–237
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

45.7Auto33.1

117.3Teleop103.7

39.8Endgame-1

109Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	11
teleop	139	21
endgame	27	49
foul	0	5
total	195	86

Result

Final score

195 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree