Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.31 – 252.03

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 113.37Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.92Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 42.02Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

7177Turismo

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 50.39Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 239.3Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -37.66Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5715, 11332, 11471

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5715, 11332, 11471

Auto

31.3 19%

Teleop

97.2 60%

Endgame

34.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7177, 3075, 1937

/ 100 compat

Projected

252 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7177, 3075, 1937

Auto

44.6 19%

Teleop

122.8 53%

Endgame

64.8 28%

Strengths

· 3075 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.3pts

Blue projected score252pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.7
Score range: 135–286
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 188.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX298.4

31.3Auto44.6

97.2Teleop122.8

34.2Endgame64.8

24Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	33
teleop	14	215
endgame	8	74
foul	0	0
total	54	322

Result

Final score

54 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree