Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.83 – 228.81

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 609

Prediction correct · off by 223 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

6230Team Koi

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 6.22Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -5.15Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 149.76Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 119.87Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 40.26Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 68.68Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6230, 1937, 5614

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6230, 1937, 5614

Auto

23.5 15%

Teleop

96.5 63%

Endgame

34.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3075, 5715, 3316

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3075, 5715, 3316

Auto

60.3 27%

Teleop

130.8 58%

Endgame

34.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.8pts

Blue projected score228.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78
Score range: 119–261
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 694 vs event baseline 177.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX298.4

23.5Auto60.3

96.5Teleop130.8

34.3Endgame34.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	116
teleop	65	323
endgame	8	165
foul	0	5
total	85	609

Result

Final score

85 – 609

Prediction correct · off by 223 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree