Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

222.65 – 242.35

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 127.7 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1943Neat Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 83.07Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 76.62Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7177Turismo

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 62.96Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

8175Piece of Mind

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 113.4Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 141.33Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -12.38Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1943, 11332, 7177

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1943, 11332, 7177

Auto

41.1 20%

Teleop

141.3 68%

Endgame

26.3 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8175, 4744, 4320

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8175, 4744, 4320

Auto

48.9 20%

Teleop

155.8 65%

Endgame

34.4 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score222.7pts

Blue projected score242.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.7
Score range: 192–273
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 445 vs event baseline 172.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

41.1Auto48.9

141.3Teleop155.8

26.3Endgame34.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	70
teleop	11	209
endgame	36	81
foul	30	0
total	85	360

Result

Final score

85 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 127.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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