Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.06 – 182.54

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 153.71Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 82.18Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -8.83Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 157.57Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -28.7Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1943Neat Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 53.67Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1942, 5715, 11390

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1942, 5715, 11390

Auto

42.2 19%

Teleop

138.2 63%

Endgame

39.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3316, 11478, 1943

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3316, 11478, 1943

Auto

43.1 25%

Teleop

89.2 52%

Endgame

40.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.1pts

Blue projected score182.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.5
Score range: 146–264
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 203.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

42.2Auto43.1

138.2Teleop89.2

39.1Endgame40.9

20Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	62
teleop	116	145
endgame	11	0
foul	0	0
total	157	207

Result

Final score

157 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 47.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree