Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

797.48 – 285.26

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

724 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.9 ±42.7

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.93Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 300.66Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 464.89Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.5 ±57.8

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 41.25Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 155.88Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 88.13Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11480, 2231, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

797.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11480, 2231, 1690

Auto

127.9 16%

Teleop

498.4 62%

Endgame

172.1 22%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10935, 1574, 3083

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10935, 1574, 3083

Auto

40.1 15%

Teleop

173.2 63%

Endgame

61.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.87 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score797.5pts

Blue projected score285.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 512.2
Score range: 237–845
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1099 vs event baseline 268.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.9Season APEX260.5

127.9Auto40.1

498.4Teleop173.2

172.1Endgame61.9

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	145	54
teleop	433	198
endgame	146	123
foul	0	0
total	724	375

Result

Final score

724 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 pts