Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.81 – 114.8

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9739Firefly

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -9.38Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 61.03Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9740CANBus in memory of Roney Tal

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.16Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 68.7Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.39Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9738Ionic Bond

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.71Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9739, 3065, 9740

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9739, 3065, 9740

Auto

38.2 53%

Teleop

15.4 21%

Endgame

18.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4416, 3835, 9738

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4416, 3835, 9738

Auto

22.5 20%

Teleop

68.6 62%

Endgame

18.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.8pts

Blue projected score114.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37
Score range: 29–164
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 272.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

38.2Auto22.5

15.4Teleop68.6

18.6Endgame18.7

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	27
teleop	21	21
endgame	0	8
foul	0	15
total	54	71

Result

Final score

54 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts