Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.29 – 191.65

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3211The Y Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.44Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7067Team Streak

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 44.45Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1580The Blue Monkeys

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.4Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 56.17Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6738Excalibur

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 33.27Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 102.21Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3211, 7067, 1580

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3211, 7067, 1580

Auto

18.5 30%

Teleop

20.3 33%

Endgame

22.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4586, 6738, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4586, 6738, 8223

Auto

30.7 16%

Teleop

108.8 56%

Endgame

53.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.3pts

Blue projected score191.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.4
Score range: 16–241
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 274.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

18.5Auto30.7

20.3Teleop108.8

22.9Endgame53.3

4Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	40
teleop	39	150
endgame	11	62
foul	0	5
total	71	257

Result

Final score

71 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts