Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.24 – 131.17

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

436 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 98 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±43.2

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -14.98Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 154.34Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 166.88Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 75.24Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 29.44Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9738Ionic Bond

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.49Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5135, 7039, 3339

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5135, 7039, 3339

Auto

66.2 22%

Teleop

166.3 56%

Endgame

64.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4416, 3835, 9738

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4416, 3835, 9738

Auto

23.3 19%

Teleop

80.4 64%

Endgame

21.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score306.2pts

Blue projected score131.2pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.1
Score range: 82–355
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 274.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

604.1Season APEX0

66.2Auto23.3

166.3Teleop80.4

64.6Endgame21

1Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	20
teleop	295	34
endgame	83	11
foul	5	0
total	436	65

Result

Final score

436 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 98 pts