Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

188.75 – 260.8

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

211 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 54.72Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6738Excalibur

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.38Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 101.65Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.5 ±57.8

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 34.06Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 148.81Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 77.93Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4586, 6738, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4586, 6738, 8223

Auto

29.2 15%

Teleop

110.5 58%

Endgame

51.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10935, 1574, 3083

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10935, 1574, 3083

Auto

37.7 15%

Teleop

164.2 64%

Endgame

53.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.8pts

Blue projected score260.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.1
Score range: 140–310
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 602 vs event baseline 272.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX260.5

29.2Auto37.7

110.5Teleop164.2

51.2Endgame53.3

3Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	54
teleop	110	215
endgame	64	97
foul	0	25
total	211	391

Result

Final score

211 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 pts