Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.81 – 301.41

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

208 – 357

Prediction missed · off by 97.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±43.2

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -1.02Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 168.24Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 179.59Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.5 ±57.8

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 48.31Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 160.43Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 92.67Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5135, 7039, 3339

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5135, 7039, 3339

Auto

57.6 17%

Teleop

204.1 61%

Endgame

75.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10935, 1574, 3083

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10935, 1574, 3083

Auto

44.9 15%

Teleop

178.1 61%

Endgame

70.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score346.8pts

Blue projected score301.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.4
Score range: 251–397
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 565 vs event baseline 277.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

604.1Season APEX260.5

57.6Auto44.9

204.1Teleop178.1

75.3Endgame70.9

8Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	71
teleop	112	188
endgame	19	83
foul	15	15
total	208	357

Result

Final score

208 – 357

Prediction missed · off by 97.2 pts