Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

785.12 – 501.46

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

667 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 140.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.9 ±42.7

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.08Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 296.91Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 461.13Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 622.4 ±43.5

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 205.77Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 38.74Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 256.95Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11480, 2231, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

785.1 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11480, 2231, 1690

Auto

131.2 17%

Teleop

487.4 62%

Endgame

167.1 21%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1577, 2679, 4590

/ 100 compat

Projected

501.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1577, 2679, 4590

Auto

99.0 20%

Teleop

290.8 59%

Endgame

100.1 20%

Strengths

· 4590 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.85 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score785.1pts

Blue projected score501.5pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 283.7
Score range: 452–834
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1006 vs event baseline 274.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.9Season APEX622.4

131.2Auto99

487.4Teleop290.8

167.1Endgame100.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	82
teleop	426	252
endgame	154	0
foul	5	5
total	667	339

Result

Final score

667 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 140.3 pts