Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

331.35 – 204.08

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

419 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±43.2

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -7.23Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 163.14Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 175.44Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 60.77Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6738Excalibur

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.91Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 105.4Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5135, 7039, 3339

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5135, 7039, 3339

Auto

54.3 17%

Teleop

193.8 60%

Endgame

74.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4586, 6738, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4586, 6738, 8223

Auto

33.0 16%

Teleop

117.0 57%

Endgame

54.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score331.4pts

Blue projected score204.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.3
Score range: 155–380
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 274.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

604.1Season APEX0

54.3Auto33

193.8Teleop117

74.3Endgame54.2

6Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	19
teleop	257	52
endgame	74	16
foul	15	0
total	419	87

Result

Final score

419 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 pts