Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.11 – 168.4

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 135.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.39Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 43.06Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -18.34Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 25.93Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6738Excalibur

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 3.09Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 139.38Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9303, 1574, 2679

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9303, 1574, 2679

Auto

9.6 30%

Teleop

17.9 56%

Endgame

4.2 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5135, 6738, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5135, 6738, 8223

Auto

33.1 20%

Teleop

104.9 63%

Endgame

29.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37.1pts

Blue projected score168.4pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.3
Score range: -7–212
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 244.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

9.6Auto33.1

17.9Teleop104.9

4.2Endgame29

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	21
teleop	128	50
endgame	46	35
foul	30	0
total	246	106

Result

Final score

246 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 135.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree