Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.42 – 572.32

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 593

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 35.59Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9739Firefly

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -1.13Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.96Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 943.6 ±20.2

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 166.21Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 154.95Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 251.16Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2679, 9739, 11480

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2679, 9739, 11480

Auto

11.8 25%

Teleop

17.7 38%

Endgame

17.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3339, 7039, 4590

/ 100 compat

Projected

572.3 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3339, 7039, 4590

Auto

106.8 19%

Teleop

343.0 60%

Endgame

122.0 21%

Strengths

· 4590 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.62 · Blue 2.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.4pts

Blue projected score572.3pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -512.9
Score range: 11–620
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 267.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX943.6

11.8Auto106.8

17.7Teleop343

17.4Endgame122

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	120
teleop	5	318
endgame	6	120
foul	0	35
total	22	593

Result

Final score

22 – 593

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree