Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.16 – 330.65

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1580The Blue Monkeys

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 25.91Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5635Demacia

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 33.46Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6738Excalibur

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 39.79Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±57.6

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 289.21Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 56.42Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -14.98Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1580, 5635, 6738

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1580, 5635, 6738

Auto

23.8 22%

Teleop

48.3 45%

Endgame

34.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2231, 4586, 5135

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2231, 4586, 5135

Auto

60.2 19%

Teleop

188.0 58%

Endgame

74.3 23%

Strengths

· 2231 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.2pts

Blue projected score330.7pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -231.5
Score range: 51–379
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 266.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX365.5

23.8Auto60.2

48.3Teleop188

34.2Endgame74.3

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	71
teleop	17	214
endgame	11	51
foul	0	0
total	34	336

Result

Final score

34 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree