Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.34 – 269.41

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

10986Negev Dominion

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -31.12Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 100.62Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 28.84Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 64.63Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 67.51Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 137.27Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10986, 8223, 3835

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10986, 8223, 3835

Auto

18.1 19%

Teleop

60.5 64%

Endgame

16.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4416, 3083, 1574

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4416, 3083, 1574

Auto

35.4 13%

Teleop

182.7 68%

Endgame

49.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.3pts

Blue projected score269.4pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -171.1
Score range: 50–317
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 266.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

18.1Auto35.4

60.5Teleop182.7

16.4Endgame49.4

24Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	60
teleop	53	206
endgame	34	90
foul	15	45
total	120	401

Result

Final score

120 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree