Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.94 – 155.56

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 162.76Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.74Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9740CANBus in memory of Roney Tal

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.44Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 60.74Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 65.75Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5635Demacia

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 29.07Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7039, 2679, 9740

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7039, 2679, 9740

Auto

42.1 21%

Teleop

115.5 57%

Endgame

43.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3065, 4416, 5635

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3065, 4416, 5635

Auto

38.0 25%

Teleop

80.3 52%

Endgame

35.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.9pts

Blue projected score155.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.4
Score range: 104–262
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 286.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.7Season APEX0

42.1Auto38

115.5Teleop80.3

43.7Endgame35.5

4Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	38
teleop	138	58
endgame	46	18
foul	10	5
total	240	119

Result

Final score

240 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree