Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.94 – 225.6

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

215 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 72.58Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 215.6Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10986Negev Dominion

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -24.24Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 138.18Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 56.64Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 30.78Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4416, 1577, 10986

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4416, 1577, 10986

Auto

48.9 19%

Teleop

165.9 65%

Endgame

42.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1574, 4586, 3835

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1574, 4586, 3835

Auto

39.5 18%

Teleop

134.1 62%

Endgame

41.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score263.9pts

Blue projected score225.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.3
Score range: 178–312
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 266.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.9Season APEX0

48.9Auto39.5

165.9Teleop134.1

42Endgame41.6

4Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	51
teleop	140	132
endgame	48	51
foul	5	0
total	215	234

Result

Final score

215 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree