Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

426.28 – 299.83

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

407 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±57.6

9738Ionic Bond

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.3Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 294.65Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 104.33Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±57.8

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 247.86Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3211The Y Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -3.87Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 55.84Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9738, 2231, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9738, 2231, 8223

Auto

66.1 16%

Teleop

255.0 60%

Endgame

104.1 24%

Strengths

· 2231 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4590, 3211, 9303

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4590, 3211, 9303

Auto

62.1 22%

Teleop

155.7 55%

Endgame

66.4 23%

Strengths

· 4590 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score426.3pts

Blue projected score299.8pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.5
Score range: 252–474
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 748 vs event baseline 268.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.5Season APEX339.5

66.1Auto62.1

255Teleop155.7

104.1Endgame66.4

32Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	73
teleop	239	177
endgame	82	91
foul	0	0
total	407	341

Result

Final score

407 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree