Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

378.45 – 402.94

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

450 – 363

Prediction missed · off by 55.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±57.4

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 433.55Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10986Negev Dominion

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -29.47Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -25.63Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

7067Team Streak

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 38.02Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 222.01Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 142.91Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1690, 10986, 5135

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1690, 10986, 5135

Auto

77.2 21%

Teleop

229.1 61%

Endgame

68.1 18%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7067, 1577, 1574

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7067, 1577, 1574

Auto

74.8 19%

Teleop

243.2 62%

Endgame

76.2 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score378.5pts

Blue projected score402.9pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.5
Score range: 330–451
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 813 vs event baseline 265.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.4Season APEX282.9

77.2Auto74.8

229.1Teleop243.2

68.1Endgame76.2

53Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	37
teleop	254	198
endgame	115	118
foul	5	10
total	450	363

Result

Final score

450 – 363

Prediction missed · off by 55.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree