Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.58 – 191.4

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

1580The Blue Monkeys

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.1Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 144.7Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 50.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.5 ±57.8

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 105.55Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 53.64Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.21Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1580, 7039, 4586

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1580, 7039, 4586

Auto

44.0 21%

Teleop

117.4 55%

Endgame

51.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8223, 10935, 2679

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8223, 10935, 2679

Auto

12.0 7%

Teleop

121.1 66%

Endgame

50.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.6pts

Blue projected score191.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.2
Score range: 143–261
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 264.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.7Season APEX260.5

44Auto12

117.4Teleop121.1

51.5Endgame50.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	30
teleop	171	108
endgame	78	78
foul	5	0
total	311	216

Result

Final score

311 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree