Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

152.95 – 244.84

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

6738Excalibur

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.86Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 82.82Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9740CANBus in memory of Roney Tal

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.27Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±57.8

9738Ionic Bond

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.03Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 234.3Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9739Firefly

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -7.49Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6738, 4416, 9740

/ 100 compat

Projected

153 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6738, 4416, 9740

Auto

25.7 17%

Teleop

96.7 63%

Endgame

32.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9738, 4590, 9739

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9738, 4590, 9739

Auto

50.6 22%

Teleop

137.2 59%

Endgame

46.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153pts

Blue projected score244.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.9
Score range: 105–293
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 265.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX339.5

25.7Auto50.6

96.7Teleop137.2

32.3Endgame46.6

28Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	86
teleop	63	157
endgame	29	117
foul	5	0
total	115	360

Result

Final score

115 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree