Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

682 – 376.95

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

618 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 725.3 ±42.9

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 229.35Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 446.39Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3211The Y Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 6.26Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±57.6

5635Demacia

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.33Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 54.93Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 294.69Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1577, 1690, 3211

/ 100 compat

Projected

682 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1577, 1690, 3211

Auto

135.5 20%

Teleop

397.0 60%

Endgame

133.0 20%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5635, 9303, 2231

/ 100 compat

Projected

377 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5635, 9303, 2231

Auto

57.0 15%

Teleop

235.7 63%

Endgame

83.7 22%

Strengths

· 2231 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.85 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score682pts

Blue projected score377pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 305.1
Score range: 330–729
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1006 vs event baseline 259.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

725.3Season APEX365.5

135.5Auto57

397Teleop235.7

133Endgame83.7

21Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	131	83
teleop	369	167
endgame	118	118
foul	0	20
total	618	388

Result

Final score

618 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree