Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 290.75

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1580The Blue Monkeys

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.38Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9739Firefly

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -15.97Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -23.66Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 600 ±43.5

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 223.4Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.4Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 47.95Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1580, 9739, 5135

/ 100 compat

Projected

-24.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1580, 9739, 5135

Auto

21.7 0%

Teleop

-54.5 100%

Endgame

-1.5 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4590, 3835, 10935

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4590, 3835, 10935

Auto

44.8 16%

Teleop

182.1 64%

Endgame

56.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-24.2pts

Blue projected score290.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -290.7
Score range: -47–338
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 260.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX600

21.7Auto44.8

-54.5Teleop182.1

-1.5Endgame56.6

19Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	79
teleop	7	257
endgame	3	65
foul	0	0
total	20	401

Result

Final score

20 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree