Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.47 – 64.16

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 59.46Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6738Excalibur

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 42.62Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 91.39Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

10986Negev Dominion

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -19.38Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 49.91Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9740CANBus in memory of Roney Tal

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 33.63Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4586, 6738, 4416

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4586, 6738, 4416

Auto

25.5 13%

Teleop

124.6 64%

Endgame

46.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10986, 9303, 9740

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10986, 9303, 9740

Auto

18.9 29%

Teleop

36.3 56%

Endgame

10.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.5pts

Blue projected score64.2pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.3
Score range: 17–240
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 263.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

25.5Auto18.9

124.6Teleop36.3

46.1Endgame10.2

0Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	12
teleop	84	17
endgame	48	12
foul	0	30
total	160	71

Result

Final score

160 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree