Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

286.2 – 543.08

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 163.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 250Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5635Demacia

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 41.93Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -5.73Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±57.4

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 40.83Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1580The Blue Monkeys

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 36.51Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 465.74Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1577, 5635, 5135

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1577, 5635, 5135

Auto

57.1 21%

Teleop

156.5 57%

Endgame

58.8 22%

Strengths

· 1577 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3835, 1580, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

543.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3835, 1580, 1690

Auto

90.7 17%

Teleop

304.7 57%

Endgame

140.7 26%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score286.2pts

Blue projected score543.1pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -256.9
Score range: 239–590
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 263.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.9Season APEX442.4

57.1Auto90.7

156.5Teleop304.7

58.8Endgame140.7

5Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	99
teleop	44	267
endgame	12	5
foul	0	0
total	131	371

Result

Final score

131 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 163.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree