Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.01 – 155.91

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

416 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 61 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 556.9 ±43.2

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 134.97Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 142.54Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 27.5Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.21Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 105.96Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9740CANBus in memory of Roney Tal

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 34.74Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3339, 1574, 10935

/ 100 compat

Projected

305 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3339, 1574, 10935

Auto

45.9 15%

Teleop

179.2 60%

Endgame

71.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11480, 8223, 9740

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11480, 8223, 9740

Auto

24.0 15%

Teleop

112.7 72%

Endgame

19.0 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score305pts

Blue projected score155.9pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.1
Score range: 109–352
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 561 vs event baseline 261.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

556.9Season APEX0

45.9Auto24

179.2Teleop112.7

71.7Endgame19

46Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	36
teleop	262	69
endgame	81	40
foul	0	0
total	416	145

Result

Final score

416 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree