Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.43 – 58.32

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 72.72Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10986Negev Dominion

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -26.83Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9738Ionic Bond

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -5.46Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.5 ±57.8

9740CANBus in memory of Roney Tal

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 36.23Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -4.87Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 26.96Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4586, 10986, 9738

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4586, 10986, 9738

Auto

14.7 41%

Teleop

25.6 72%

Endgame

-4.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9740, 5135, 10935

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9740, 5135, 10935

Auto

10.5 22%

Teleop

15.0 32%

Endgame

21.5 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.4pts

Blue projected score58.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.9
Score range: -8–106
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 268.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX260.5

14.7Auto10.5

25.6Teleop15

-4.8Endgame21.5

80Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	18
teleop	20	23
endgame	32	14
foul	0	0
total	70	55

Result

Final score

70 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree