Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.73 – 157.49

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

311 – 320

Prediction missed · off by 101.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 68.2Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 73.41Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 129.12Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

9739Firefly

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -30.12Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 60.44Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 127.17Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4416, 9303, 3339

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4416, 9303, 3339

Auto

48.4 18%

Teleop

165.2 63%

Endgame

50.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9739, 3083, 7039

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9739, 3083, 7039

Auto

44.1 29%

Teleop

74.5 49%

Endgame

34.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.54 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score270.7pts

Blue projected score157.5pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.2
Score range: 110–318
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 631 vs event baseline 262.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.4Season APEX307.7

48.4Auto44.1

165.2Teleop74.5

50.4Endgame34.6

51Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	60
teleop	186	213
endgame	71	47
foul	0	0
total	311	320

Result

Final score

311 – 320

Prediction missed · off by 101.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree