Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.34 – 53.19

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

6738Excalibur

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.8Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.39Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9738Ionic Bond

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -0.85Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.16Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -9.15Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 47.18Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6738, 11480, 9738

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6738, 11480, 9738

Auto

8.4 28%

Teleop

27.5 91%

Endgame

-5.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2679, 5135, 3835

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2679, 5135, 3835

Auto

15.5 28%

Teleop

16.1 30%

Endgame

22.8 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.3pts

Blue projected score53.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.8
Score range: -17–101
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 264.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

8.4Auto15.5

27.5Teleop16.1

-5.6Endgame22.8

100Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	12
teleop	44	18
endgame	10	11
foul	0	65
total	69	106

Result

Final score

69 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree