Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.43 – 198.79

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 106.75Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 82.12Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 56.56Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 234.14Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3211The Y Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -6.2Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9739Firefly

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -29.15Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7039, 8223, 9303

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7039, 8223, 9303

Auto

37.9 15%

Teleop

152.7 62%

Endgame

54.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1577, 3211, 9739

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1577, 3211, 9739

Auto

55.9 31%

Teleop

78.0 44%

Endgame

45.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score245.4pts

Blue projected score198.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.6
Score range: 151–293
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 528 vs event baseline 264.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.7Season APEX282.9

37.9Auto55.9

152.7Teleop78

54Endgame45.1

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	73
teleop	213	57
endgame	89	9
foul	15	30
total	359	169

Result

Final score

359 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree