Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.01 – 70.52

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

44 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

10986Negev Dominion

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 8.06Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9739Firefly

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -19.42Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 123.37Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.11Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5635Demacia

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 61.32Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3211The Y Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -9.91Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10986, 9739, 7039

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10986, 9739, 7039

Auto

35.0 31%

Teleop

58.4 52%

Endgame

18.7 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11480, 5635, 3211

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11480, 5635, 3211

Auto

19.0 30%

Teleop

19.6 31%

Endgame

24.7 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112pts

Blue projected score70.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.5
Score range: 22–161
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 270.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.7Season APEX0

35Auto19

58.4Teleop19.6

18.7Endgame24.7

45Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	17
teleop	10	15
endgame	11	6
foul	0	0
total	44	38

Result

Final score

44 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree