Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.78 – 191.39

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 107.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

9738Ionic Bond

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -17.07Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.6Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 90.25Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.5 ±57.8

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 34.77Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9740CANBus in memory of Roney Tal

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 64.43Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 92.19Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9738, 3835, 3339

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9738, 3835, 3339

Auto

40.3 44%

Teleop

44.4 49%

Endgame

5.9 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10935, 9740, 4586

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10935, 9740, 4586

Auto

20.3 11%

Teleop

128.7 69%

Endgame

36.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.8pts

Blue projected score191.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.6
Score range: 46–240
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 274.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.4Season APEX260.5

40.3Auto20.3

44.4Teleop128.7

5.9Endgame36.4

121Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	19
teleop	152	76
endgame	59	46
foul	0	0
total	260	141

Result

Final score

260 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 107.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree