Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

336.42 – 360.31

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

237 – 462

Prediction correct · off by 100.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -1.84Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 183.93Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 154.33Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 622.4 ±43.5

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 193.73Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.47Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 166.11Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5135, 1574, 7039

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5135, 1574, 7039

Auto

51.1 16%

Teleop

179.5 56%

Endgame

92.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1577, 2679, 4590

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1577, 2679, 4590

Auto

54.0 16%

Teleop

200.1 60%

Endgame

80.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score336.4pts

Blue projected score360.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.9
Score range: 290–406
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 699 vs event baseline 254.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.7Season APEX622.4

51.1Auto54

179.5Teleop200.1

92.2Endgame80.9

69Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	100
teleop	120	304
endgame	66	43
foul	0	15
total	237	462

Result

Final score

237 – 462

Prediction correct · off by 100.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree