Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17 – 124.92

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

318 – 9

Prediction missed · off by 208.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

5635Demacia

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -10.77Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7067Team Streak

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.21Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX -3.44Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

6738Excalibur

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -9.57Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10986Negev Dominion

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 67.33Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3211The Y Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 67.16Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5635, 7067, 3339

/ 100 compat

Projected

17 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5635, 7067, 3339

Auto

5.6 100%

Teleop

-14.7 0%

Endgame

11.9 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6738, 10986, 3211

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6738, 10986, 3211

Auto

30.6 24%

Teleop

52.5 42%

Endgame

43.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score17pts

Blue projected score124.9pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.9
Score range: -30–172
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 260.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.4Season APEX0

5.6Auto30.6

-14.7Teleop52.5

11.9Endgame43.2

122Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	5
teleop	182	3
endgame	81	1
foul	0	0
total	318	9

Result

Final score

318 – 9

Prediction missed · off by 208.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree