Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

266.99 – 523.13

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 604

Prediction correct · off by 142.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 153.8Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 57.4Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9739Firefly

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 55.79Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±57.4

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 105.46Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.99Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 415.68Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8223, 3065, 9739

/ 100 compat

Projected

267 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8223, 3065, 9739

Auto

55.6 21%

Teleop

146.5 55%

Endgame

65.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4586, 11480, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

523.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4586, 11480, 1690

Auto

86.2 17%

Teleop

324.0 63%

Endgame

106.8 21%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score267pts

Blue projected score523.1pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -256.1
Score range: 221–569
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 667 vs event baseline 255.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX442.4

55.6Auto86.2

146.5Teleop324

65.2Endgame106.8

62Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	96
teleop	24	378
endgame	0	130
foul	5	0
total	63	604

Result

Final score

63 – 604

Prediction correct · off by 142.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree