Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.65 – 336.61

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 430

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.5 ±57.8

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.61Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 48.24Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9738Ionic Bond

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -35.2Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±57.6

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 232.23Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 95.82Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 8.56Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3083, 10935, 9738

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3083, 10935, 9738

Auto

-9.6 0%

Teleop

39.6 100%

Endgame

-2.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2231, 4416, 9303

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.6 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2231, 4416, 9303

Auto

80.1 24%

Teleop

205.6 63%

Endgame

42.6 13%

Strengths

· 2231 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.6pts

Blue projected score336.6pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -307
Score range: -16–383
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 545 vs event baseline 254.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.5Season APEX365.5

-9.6Auto80.1

39.6Teleop205.6

-2.1Endgame42.6

142Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	68
teleop	87	308
endgame	5	54
foul	0	0
total	115	430

Result

Final score

115 – 430

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree