Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

327.15 – 139.28

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

333 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±57.8

1580The Blue Monkeys

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 101.57Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9740CANBus in memory of Roney Tal

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 57.56Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 168.02Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 151.52Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6738Excalibur

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -52.84Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 40.6Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1580, 9740, 4590

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1580, 9740, 4590

Auto

44.4 14%

Teleop

210.9 65%

Endgame

68.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7039, 6738, 3835

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7039, 6738, 3835

Auto

43.1 30%

Teleop

66.1 47%

Endgame

32.2 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.67 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score327.2pts

Blue projected score139.3pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 187.9
Score range: 93–373
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 253.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX307.7

44.4Auto43.1

210.9Teleop66.1

68.7Endgame32.2

42Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	28
teleop	181	115
endgame	76	51
foul	5	0
total	333	194

Result

Final score

333 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree