Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.08 – 64.41

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

3211The Y Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 51.66Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX -3.43Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 136.85Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.04Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9738Ionic Bond

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -13.12Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 63.49Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3211, 3339, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3211, 3339, 8223

Auto

49.8 30%

Teleop

65.4 39%

Endgame

52.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3083, 9738, 4416

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3083, 9738, 4416

Auto

13.5 24%

Teleop

43.5 77%

Endgame

-0.8 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.1pts

Blue projected score64.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.7
Score range: 19–230
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 250.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.4Season APEX0

49.8Auto13.5

65.4Teleop43.5

52.7Endgame-0.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	23
teleop	105	64
endgame	33	5
foul	5	0
total	181	92

Result

Final score

181 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree