Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.69 – 91.48

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 336

Prediction missed · off by 166.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 47.21Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5135Black Unicorns

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.35Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.13Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

9740CANBus in memory of Roney Tal

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.82Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -26.08Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 107.74Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9303, 5135, 11480

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9303, 5135, 11480

Auto

19.4 23%

Teleop

47.0 56%

Endgame

17.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9740, 3835, 1577

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9740, 3835, 1577

Auto

24.2 28%

Teleop

40.3 47%

Endgame

20.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.7pts

Blue projected score91.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.2
Score range: 45–150
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 257.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX282.9

19.4Auto24.2

47Teleop40.3

17.9Endgame20.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	61
teleop	7	225
endgame	0	45
foul	0	5
total	16	336

Result

Final score

16 – 336

Prediction missed · off by 166.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree