Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

760.17 – 469.03

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

746 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 126.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.9 ±42.7

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.49Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 289.71Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 452.97Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 622.4 ±43.5

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 194.35Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 246.27Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 28.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11480, 2231, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

760.2 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11480, 2231, 1690

Auto

126.0 17%

Teleop

459.6 61%

Endgame

172.0 23%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1577, 4590, 2679

/ 100 compat

Projected

469 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1577, 4590, 2679

Auto

98.7 21%

Teleop

269.7 59%

Endgame

92.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.85 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score760.2pts

Blue projected score469pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 291.1
Score range: 418–811
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 976 vs event baseline 283.3.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.9Season APEX622.4

126Auto98.7

459.6Teleop269.7

172Endgame92.6

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	134	134
teleop	419	78
endgame	193	18
foul	0	0
total	746	230

Result

Final score

746 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 126.6 pts