Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

770.64 – 466.16

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

686 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.9 ±42.7

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.29Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 293.3Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 456.05Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 622.4 ±43.5

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 193.28Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 245.4Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.48Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11480, 2231, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

770.6 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11480, 2231, 1690

Auto

124.1 16%

Teleop

480.3 62%

Endgame

166.2 22%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1577, 4590, 2679

/ 100 compat

Projected

466.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1577, 4590, 2679

Auto

97.7 21%

Teleop

273.1 60%

Endgame

86.3 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.86 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score770.6pts

Blue projected score466.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 304.5
Score range: 416–821
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1176 vs event baseline 278.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.9Season APEX622.4

124.1Auto97.7

480.3Teleop273.1

166.2Endgame86.3

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	140	107
teleop	311	237
endgame	215	146
foul	20	0
total	686	490

Result

Final score

686 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts