Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

451.54 – 373.63

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

265 – 370

Prediction missed · off by 95.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.99Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 200.89Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 217.66Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 129.86Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 173.42Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 70.35Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3835, 1577, 5614

/ 100 compat

Projected

451.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3835, 1577, 5614

Auto

107.1 25%

Teleop

199.7 47%

Endgame

116.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7845, 1574, 3083

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7845, 1574, 3083

Auto

71.1 20%

Teleop

193.5 54%

Endgame

96.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score451.5pts

Blue projected score373.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.9
Score range: 312–514
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 635 vs event baseline 342.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.9Season APEX0

107.1Auto71.1

199.7Teleop193.5

116.6Endgame96.8

55Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	80
teleop	95	190
endgame	48	85
foul	10	15
total	265	370

Result

Final score

265 – 370

Prediction missed · off by 95.1 pts